AI Could Trigger a Global Jobs Market Collapse by 2027 if Left Unchecked
As tech companies race towards achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI), the implications for the global jobs market are increasingly concerning. Industry leaders, including Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei and Tesla CEO Elon Musk, predict that human-level artificial intelligence could emerge as early as 2027. However, experts warn that the unchecked development of AI could have catastrophic consequences for the economy and job security.
The Pursuit of AGI
Ex-Google insider and AI expert Tristan Harris expressed concerns during an interview on The Diary of a CEO podcast. He highlighted the perilous incentives driving the rush towards AGI, emphasizing that this competitive logic leads companies to prioritize speed over safety and security. “It forces everyone to be incentivized to take the most shortcuts,” he stated, warning that this could disrupt countless jobs and negatively impact the well-being of ordinary people.
The Current Regulatory Landscape
Currently, AI companies operate with minimal regulation. On his first day of the second term, President Donald Trump rolled back crucial AI regulations implemented during the Biden administration, designed to ensure safe and secure technology deployment to support workers affected by job disruptions. Additionally, Trump signed an executive order that preempted state regulations, arguing that a patchwork of laws could stymie innovation. Harris contended that this unregulated AI growth is not in the best interest of the average American.
Job Market Disruption
Harris articulated his belief that the threat posed by AI to the job market is greater than that of immigration. He likened advanced AI to a wave of “millions of new digital immigrants” capable of performing complex tasks at superhuman speeds and at a fraction of the cost. Early research supports these claims, with a study from Stanford University indicating a 13% decline in jobs for early-career workers due to AI integration.
Furthermore, significant layoffs have already occurred as companies adopt AI technologies. For instance, Microsoft eliminated 9,000 jobs, and Salesforce cut 4,000 customer service roles, citing AI implementation as a key factor.
A Comparison to NAFTA
Harris compared the potential disruption from AI to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which critics argue harmed the U.S. job market. He posited that AI represents NAFTA 2.0, introducing a new class of cognitive laborers who can perform tasks more efficiently and cheaply than human workers.
The Need for Regulation
Harris forecasts that the current path of unregulated AI development could lead to a significant political backlash as people recognize the magnitude of the issue. Already, 26 states have introduced some form of AI legislation, with states like New York and California proposing stringent requirements around safety and data transparency.
He stressed the urgency for swift regulation, arguing that as AI continues to replace human jobs, the value of human labor could diminish, leading to a dilution of political power. “This is the last moment that human political power will matter,” Harris cautioned, highlighting the risk of a future where the economy is predominantly driven by AI companies.
In conclusion, the unchecked progress of AI poses a formidable challenge to the global workforce, demanding immediate attention and regulation to safeguard economic stability and the well-being of workers.
