Eight Ways AI Will Shape Geopolitics in 2026
The events of 2025 made clear that the question is no longer whether artificial intelligence (AI) will reshape the global order, but how quickly—and at what cost.
Throughout the year, technological breakthroughs from both the United States and China escalated the competition for AI dominance between the superpowers. Countries and companies raced to build vast data centers and energy infrastructure to support AI development and use. The scramble for cutting-edge chips pushed Nvidia’s valuation past five trillion dollars, marking it as the first company to reach that milestone, even as concerns mounted over circular financing and the validity of the AI boom amidst hype versus reality.
As 2026 begins, rapid AI integration threatens to inject even more unpredictability into an already fragmented global order. Below, expert predictions outline what to expect from AI around the globe in the year ahead.
AI Poisoning Goes Mainstream
Russia’s Pravda network has published millions of articles targeting over eighty countries, amplifying content from Russian state media to legitimize military aggression while casting doubt on Western support for Ukraine. Most articles target web crawlers rather than human readers, designed to feed AI models with biased data.
In 2026, the issue of AI poisoning will emerge in the mainstream. With a roughly two-year lag in AI training data, propaganda campaigns targeting AI are expected to manifest more frequently, presenting significant research and policy challenges.
The US Pushes AI Tech Exports to Counter China
In 2026, the United States is set to focus on exporting its tech stack as a cornerstone of its international AI strategy. Following President Trump’s endorsement of exporting advanced Nvidia chips to China, the U.S. intends to ensure that its technology and standards drive global AI advancements.
Expect more AI-focused partnerships from the United States, particularly in emerging markets, while China continues to leverage its lead in open-source AI models.
AI Governance Turns Global
AI governance enters a global phase in 2026, backed by the United Nations. This forum allows nearly all states to debate AI’s risks and norms, marking a shift into a realm of shared global concern.
However, geopolitical tensions remain acute as the European Union pushes for a rights-based regulatory model, while the U.S. advocates for voluntary standards. Smaller states gain a voice but remain dependent on major powers controlling AI talent and resources.
The US-China AI Race Intensifies in a Multipolar World
Competition between the United States and China will intensify as middle powers close the gap in AI capabilities. China’s DeepSeek is expected to release new models that could redefine the AI landscape.
As both superpowers engage in trade retaliation regarding AI supply chains, Europe and other middle powers will enhance their investments in AI defenses and capabilities.
AI Challenges Human Judgment
In 2026, AI-human interaction will challenge human judgment and identity due to increasingly complex AI capabilities. AI-generated content can manipulate political narratives and shape public perceptions, blurring the lines between reality and fabrication.
The dynamics of misinformation will evolve, making it difficult to distinguish between AI-generated fabrications and authentic content, posing challenges for personal identity and professional integrity.
Countries Go All In on ‘Sovereign AI’
In response to anticipated AI demand, nations are increasingly investing in sovereign AI initiatives. Countries aim to control AI to safeguard national security and enhance domestic economies. However, the complexity of building an entire AI stack independently requires nations to strategically choose what to develop and where to form partnerships.
The Battle of the AI Stacks Escalates
As AI becomes central to economic prospects, policymakers will seek greater control over critical digital infrastructure. The U.S., EU, and China will engage in a battle over their respective AI stacks, influencing how AI technology develops globally.
With plans to export the U.S. tech stack and significant investments in AI infrastructure from the EU, the world must navigate these rival approaches while seeking greater control over digital public infrastructure.
China Doubles Down on AI-Powered Influence Operations
In 2026, China’s AI-enabled disinformation efforts are expected to expand in scale and sophistication, particularly targeting Taiwan. These campaigns employ AI-generated content to influence political perceptions and voter behavior, making detection increasingly challenging.
As China blends AI-generated content with human messaging, the global landscape of AI-powered influence operations will evolve, complicating the task of attribution and detection.
