America’s Coming War Over AI Regulation
In the final weeks of 2025, the battle over regulating artificial intelligence in the US reached a boiling point. On December 11, after Congress failed twice to pass a law banning state AI laws, President Donald Trump signed a sweeping executive order seeking to restrict states from regulating the booming industry. Instead, he vowed to work with Congress to establish a “minimally burdensome” national AI policy, positioning the US to win the global AI race. This move marked a qualified victory for tech titans, who have been marshaling multimillion-dollar war chests to oppose AI regulations, arguing that a patchwork of state laws would stifle innovation.
In 2026, the battleground will shift to the courts. Some states might back down from passing AI laws, while others will charge ahead, buoyed by mounting public pressure to protect children from chatbots and rein in power-hungry data centers. Dueling super PACs, bankrolled by tech moguls and AI-safety advocates, will pour tens of millions into congressional and state elections to seat lawmakers who champion their competing visions for AI regulation.
Executive Order and State Resistance
Trump’s executive order directs the Department of Justice to establish a task force that will sue states whose AI laws clash with his vision for light-touch regulation. Additionally, it directs the Department of Commerce to withhold federal broadband funding from states with “onerous” AI laws. Experts like James Grimmelmann, a law professor at Cornell Law School, suggest that the executive order will target a small number of provisions, primarily related to transparency and bias in AI, which tend to align with more liberal concerns.
Despite this pressure, many states remain steadfast. For instance, on December 19, New York’s governor, Kathy Hochul, signed the Responsible AI Safety and Education (RAISE) Act, requiring AI companies to publish their safety protocols. Similarly, California launched the nation’s first frontier AI safety law, SB 53, aimed at preventing catastrophic harms such as biological weapons or cyberattacks. Although these laws were diluted due to industry lobbying, they represent a rare compromise between tech giants and AI safety advocates.
Future Legal Battles
Should Trump target these hard-won laws, Democratic states like California and New York may take the fight to court. Furthermore, Republican states such as Florida, which have vocal champions for AI regulation, might join the fray. Trump may face significant challenges; as Margot Kaminski, a law professor at the University of Colorado Law School, notes, his administration risks stretching itself thin with its attempts at preempting legislation via executive action.
Republican states, anxious to avoid Trump’s ire or dependent on federal broadband funding, might retreat from passing or enforcing AI laws. This chaos could chill state lawmaking, leaving the Democratic states—armed with substantial budgets and motivated by the optics of opposing the administration—least likely to budge.
Congressional Gridlock
In lieu of state laws, Trump promises a federal AI policy through Congress. However, the gridlocked body has shown little inclination to deliver a bill this year. Notably, the Senate killed a moratorium on state AI laws, and the House scrapped another attempt in a defense bill. Experts like Brad Carson, a former Democratic congressman, argue that Trump’s executive order has hardened partisan positions, complicating the passage of responsible AI policy.
While accelerationists in Trump’s orbit advocate for deregulation, populist figures like Steve Bannon caution against rogue superintelligence and mass unemployment. In response to Trump’s executive order, Republican state attorneys general signed a bipartisan letter urging the FCC not to override state AI laws.
Public Demand for Regulation
As public anxiety about AI’s impact on mental health, jobs, and the environment grows, the demand for regulation intensifies. In 2025, state legislators introduced over 1,000 AI bills, enacting more than 100 laws, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Efforts to protect children from chatbots may foster rare consensus. For example, on January 7, Google and Character Technologies settled lawsuits with families after tragic incidents linked to interactions with chatbots.
In response, states are likely to pass child safety laws exempt from Trump’s proposed ban on state AI regulations. A notable example is the Parents & Kids Safe AI Act in California, which would require AI companies to verify user age and offer parental controls. If successful, it could serve as a model for similar initiatives nationwide.
The Road Ahead
Amid growing backlash against data centers, states will likely attempt to regulate the resources necessary for AI operations, including mandates for data centers to disclose their power and water usage. If AI displaces jobs on a large scale, labor groups may propose bans in specific professions. Some states concerned about catastrophic risks may adopt laws akin to SB 53 and the RAISE Act.
In the coming years, tech titans will leverage their financial resources to combat AI regulations. Super PACs like Leading the Future, supported by figures like Greg Brockman, will seek to elect candidates who favor unregulated AI development. Conversely, super PACs funded by advocacy groups will back candidates favoring AI regulation, potentially leading to candidates campaigning on anti-AI platforms.
As the slow, messy process of American democracy continues, the rules crafted in state capitals could significantly influence how this transformative technology evolves, impacting not just the US but the world.
