Moody’s Forecasts Growing AI Threats and Regulatory Friction for 2026
Moody’s cyber outlook report indicates a significant shift in the landscape of cybersecurity threats and regulatory frameworks in 2026. As businesses increasingly adopt artificial intelligence (AI) technologies without adequate safeguards, the report predicts that AI-related threats will become more prevalent and pronounced.
Emerging AI Threats
AI has already facilitated more personalized attacks, notably through phishing emails and deepfake media. However, the report warns that 2026 is likely to see the rise of adaptive malware, which will be difficult for defenders to detect. Additionally, AI agents will assist hackers in launching attacks more swiftly.
One of the most concerning predictions is the emergence of autonomous attacks, which experts have increasingly flagged as a significant risk. The potential for such attacks stems from the rapid advancement of AI technologies and the vulnerabilities that can be exploited by cybercriminals.
The Defense Landscape
On the defensive side, the report emphasizes that companies failing to invest in AI-driven defenses will find themselves increasingly vulnerable. The report articulates that the autonomous capabilities of agentic AI could lead to unpredictable behavior and accumulate errors, complicating incident response activities.
Moody’s notes that while AI-powered defense solutions can enhance security, they are not a “silver bullet.” These solutions introduce new risks and necessitate robust governance. Companies relying solely on manual processes will likely fall behind, increasing their exposure to potentially costly breaches.
Regulatory Harmonization Challenges
Moody’s also highlights the diverging regulatory paths between the European Union, the United States, and nations in the Asia-Pacific region. The EU is pursuing coordinated regulatory frameworks, such as the Network and Information Security Directive, while the U.S. is experiencing a shift in regulatory focus under the current administration.
The report anticipates that while regional harmonization may gain traction in 2026, achieving true global alignment will remain a challenge due to conflicting domestic priorities and legislative agendas. Cybercriminals are likely to exploit regulatory gaps more quickly than regulators can address them, making it crucial to introduce harmonization measures that bolster resilience rather than dilute it.
In summary, the coming year presents a dual challenge for organizations: navigating the increasing sophistication of AI-driven cyber threats while adapting to a complex and evolving regulatory environment.
